Cuba Without a Patron: Regime Survival in a Post-Venezuela Environment Post Operation Absolute Resolve Resource and Regime Sustainment Assessment

BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front):
After Operation Absolute Resolve, Cuba lost most direct support from Venezuela. Venezuela stopped sending oil and related resources in December 2025. That loss affects fuel, electricity, financing, barter programs, and security cooperation. Mexico now sends limited fuel to Cuba, and Russia and China provide small and indirect support. No country has replaced Venezuela as a full sponsor. Cuba now manages constant shortages and relies on short-term fixes to keep the government functioning.